NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17c429c72bd9c513f7f39e8b9c6af77c28fc7000f711acc31866520ac26f5b0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Maple Leafs, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Maple Leafs | 35c | 8,572$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.99 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jets | 65c | 6,687$4,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,339.75 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…0262backed Maple Leafs | 36c | 2,890$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jets | 65c | 2,050$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.5 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Jets | 64c | 1,655$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.8 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Jets | 66c | 1,180$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.18 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 1,058$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.72 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Jets | 64c | 835.94$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.94 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Maple Leafs | 35c | 815$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.38 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jets | 65c | 505$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.75 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Jets | 64c | 419.84$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.14 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Maple Leafs | 15c | 355$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Jets | 64c | 149.75$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Jets | 64c | 105$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Maple Leafs | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Jets | 68c | 98.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Maple Leafs | 32c | 88.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…0b37backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Jets | 64c | 71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Maple Leafs | 32c | 69.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Jets | 66c | 62.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Maple Leafs | 34c | 61.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Jets | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 254 | 35.4%90 W · 164 L | -22.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Jets | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Jets | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Jets vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Jets vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Jets vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.