NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x892b799cc09c313c1217b3cd7fbf1fa497f73bd4275232211d6ff0cb05c8e983
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 54c | 4,302$2,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.05 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Over | 46c | 4,263$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,302.02 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 44c | 2,570$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.97 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 55c | 1,654$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.87 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 56c | 1,013$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.28 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Under | 58c | 862.87$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 823$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.65 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 792.16$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.46 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 56c | 747$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.32 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 45c | 700$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 55c | 250$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 44c | 235$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.6 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 45c | 217.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.78 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 56c | 167$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 54c | 102$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 102$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 43c | 53.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 45c | 44.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 56c | 35.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 44c | 25.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Jets vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Jets vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.