NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf736cd06e8abbda67802cd5777d85b0cd4ab70fba1bff914cda21cc67978a518
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 1,493$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.85 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Over | 57c | 373.31$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.52 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 287.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.18 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 49c | 117.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 100.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Under | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 45c | 96.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 57c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 51c | 52.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 45c | 44.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 53c | 44.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Jets vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Jets vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.