NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17d3b9a50bef47f303f307d77509fc5d80412254e4cf6e57c406515cdf24024e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 12,244$6,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,122 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 7,062$3,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,672.23 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 47c | 2,947$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 53c | 2,428$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.77 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…e4c8backed Over | 55c | 1,806$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 1,584$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.18 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 51c | 923$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.54 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 923$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.54 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Over | 45c | 366.55$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.95 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 55c | 362.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 45c | 332.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.14 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 53c | 302$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.06 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 53c | 215$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Under | 58c | 78.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…0a96backed Over | 54c | 66.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 52c | 55.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5this page
- Oilers vs. FlyersOilers won
- Oilers vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.