NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7df997fb9a9b5ba049dddc56d5ab6315e827a159292123a7f11a9601ebfcff89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 59c | 26,524$15,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,936.37 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 41c | 8,925$3,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,659.25 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 4,032$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.75 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 2,062$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.42 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 41c | 1,400$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 41c | 1,292$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.72 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 41c | 1,200$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 41c | 874$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.94 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 41c | 795$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.95 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 59c | 592$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.72 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 59c | 592$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.72 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c8…753fbacked Over | 42c | 179$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…8f91backed Over | 42c | 172$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e6…8e70backed Under | 58c | 165$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…9624backed Under | 58c | 157$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…6d37backed Over | 42c | 155$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…03f4backed Under | 58c | 142$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…d923backed Under | 61c | 131.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 39c | 106.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…813dbacked Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…e12fbacked Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…90bdbacked Under | 60c | 20.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b8…02c6backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Under | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5this page
- Oilers vs. FlyersOilers won
- Oilers vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.