Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17da74661f3a479aac09ddfd0695b859a5fa77f9adaecb6e1c42d62be43593a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 8c | 1,050$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 28c | 556.73$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.5 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 72c | 436.35$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.4 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 63c | 256.92$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 72c | 244.86$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.7 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 177.77$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a35…3a72backed Yes | 69c | 167.7$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 64c | 165.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 55c | 164.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 144.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 138.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 51c | 138.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 51c | 134.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 129.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 45c | 116.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 47c | 113.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 49c | 97.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 88.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 43c | 86.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed No | 51c | 86.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 54c | 76.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 49c | 65.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 55c | 64.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 58.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 50c | 57.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 53.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 59c | 48.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 54c | 45.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 31c | 44.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed Yes | 38c | 42.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 41.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 55c | 40.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 49c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 73c | 39.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 36.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 44c | 32.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Yes | 46c | 31.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed Yes | 44c | 29.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 48c | 28.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 49c | 27.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 51c | 27.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…f2ccbacked Yes | 44c | 24.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 61c | 22.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 67c | 21.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…55eebacked Yes | 53c | 21.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 73c | 20.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes | 56c | 19.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 19.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…b944backed Yes | 54c | 19.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…3039backed No | 57c | 19.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…e46bbacked No | 54c | 19.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 79c | 17.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.