Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9172da9ba26f0b00a38dda9e65f60da48bca12e351902a3ad260e2403a239dff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 72c | 259.49$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.36 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 249.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 78c | 233.71$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 200.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 63c | 181.61$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.87 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 40c | 165.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 148.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.46 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 34c | 140.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 138$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4705…fd08backed Yes | 38c | 133.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 120.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 115.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 115.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 51c | 114.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 61c | 112.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2312…8ae7backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 55c | 99.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 38c | 96.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 12c | 95.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 91.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 30c | 84.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 61c | 83.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 80.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 63c | 78.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 77.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 68.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 39c | 67.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a2…875ebacked No | 67c | 62.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…2db2backed No | 65c | 61.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 59.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 68c | 56.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 46c | 51.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 29c | 50.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…3209backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 35c | 48.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…2c95backed No | 31c | 48.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 47.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 64c | 46.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 66c | 45.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 66c | 45.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 66c | 45.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…4924backed Yes | 37c | 44.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 39.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 37c | 37.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 38c | 32.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked Yes | 37c | 31.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 63c | 29.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 38c | 28.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 37c | 28.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 26.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 65c | 21.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 64c | 21.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 64c | 20.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 19.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 80c | 17.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 70c | 16.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.