Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 May 4-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1815f71314eba11c08969ba70f95fce4bd81468efa9d11d5356b883440ecdefc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f93…e8c0backed No | 1c | 6,206$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 79c | 2,296$1,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.21 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 4c | 1,403$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…9a67backed No | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…d08ebacked No | 68c | 507.97$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked No | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed No | 5c | 365.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 68c | 148.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…5767backed No | 32c | 140.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…7328backed No | 66c | 140.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 35c | 113.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…008bbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 75c | 89.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked No | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…f851backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x970a…445abacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +224%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade4…e91dbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53b6…ddf8backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4d…0b8fbacked Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bf…a661backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e8…4878backed Yes | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 May 4-10?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 May 4-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.