Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb39a030f1ffd0ed48d5785db3d924dc9d301e3ff0d67983d8bacb505f2d78f39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 2c | 26,307$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.26 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 3c | 9,415$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 34c | 6,719$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260.34 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 79c | 5,813$4,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.13 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 1c | 5,292$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…81dfbacked No | 58c | 5,000$2,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,119.99 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…5b05backed Yes | 6c | 4,684$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.41 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…51ebbacked Yes | 6c | 2,605$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.43 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ce…6781backed Yes | 3c | 1,732$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,503$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,403$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…1b86backed Yes | 31c | 1,360$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.45 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30cb…b901backed No | 66c | 1,046$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.31 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,007$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…494bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 2c | 891.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9725…02f5backed Yes | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 2c | 714.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes | 38c | 650$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 69c | 604$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 355$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…a096backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…7823backed Yes | 43c | 231.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0abb…6ac7backed Yes | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 67c | 164.83$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…0622backed No | 72c | 138.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f9…8a6ebacked Yes | 16c | 83.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…6a9abacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…de14backed Yes | 31c | 50.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d1…5840backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe772…9084backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3e…5a1dbacked Yes | 31c | 40.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6714…fad2backed No | 64c | 20.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212f…7870backed No | 70c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…5d58backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa758…444dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 May 4-10?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 May 4-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.