Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 4-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ad6b667a714255a915930f4b5ba397428ba64d546f00dc920bab3992a36978b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 20c | 12,704$2,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,563.02 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…51ebbacked Yes | 1c | 8,447$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c6b4backed Yes | 2c | 5,454$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 12c | 4,082$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.1 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,072$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 2,500$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.2 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,431$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…b347backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed No | 79c | 1,100$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…6feabacked No | 72c | 980$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.2 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf74…8865backed Yes | 7c | 546.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045a…b9a4backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…4f04backed Yes | 3c | 369.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…0ac6backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc08d…b666backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 5c | 241.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…026dbacked Yes | 18c | 214.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc4…6b81backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 199.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc7…653bbacked Yes | 7c | 190.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…7cf5backed Yes | 16c | 150.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…de14backed Yes | 18c | 87.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf85…d62ebacked Yes | 31c | 76.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a3…96b3backed Yes | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…6f84backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…584cbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1c4cbacked No | 76c | 33.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 21.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 4-10?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 May 4-10?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 May 4-10?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 May 4-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.