TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,793
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,879

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,793 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6498…8910backed Cleveland Guardians59c15,000$8,850 inWon+$6,15051756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals41c5,201$2,133 inLost-$2,132.5211,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians59c3,722$2,199 inWon+$1,522.6710,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Cleveland Guardians40c3,122$1,249 inWon+$1,873.131,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals41c930.48$377 inLost-$377.3912,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Kansas City Royals38c498.9$190 inLost-$189.584,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Cleveland Guardians40c238$95 inWon+$142.81,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Kansas City Royals50c200$100 inLost-$10040753.6%218 W · 189 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Cleveland Guardians61c150$91 inWon+$59.255,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals40c104.88$41 inLost-$41.438,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Kansas City Royals39c82.82$32 inLost-$32.3958254.3%316 W · 266 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25ed…3e98backed Kansas City Royals45c55.56$25 inLost-$2525748.2%124 W · 133 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd3c…fc78backed Cleveland Guardians40c49.75$20 inWon+$29.853234.4%11 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Kansas City Royals38c35.21$13 inLost-$13.381,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45cf…0f46backed Kansas City Royals41c25.4$10 inLost-$10.49735.1%34 W · 63 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-3.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.