MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72c527d8fa021dc1b6c07390d30c6deede51c5e8275022097837cf474925b17b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 10,126$3,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400.61 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 9,679$6,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,291.44 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…ebf6backed Kansas City Royals | 33c | 1,619$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Kansas City Royals | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.87 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 1,453$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.82 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…198fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 1,165$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 1,021$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.35 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 861$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.79 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 788.09$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.23 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 750$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.5 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 554.63$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.31 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 502.73$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.07 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 360$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 355$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 281.43$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.31 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 229$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 197.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Kansas City Royals | 16c | 137.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 124.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 124$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 119 | 48.7%58 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Kansas City Royals | 23c | 111.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 105.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Kansas City Royals | 18c | 104.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 76.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 74.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Kansas City Royals | 34c | 63.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 58.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 57.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Kansas City Royals | 29c | 55.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 49.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 48.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 48.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 42.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 41.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 40.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 35.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Kansas City Royals | 38c | 34.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 31.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 29.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 25.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.