Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x182a54d7760117c78a35b7c30dd290581edfeba9d95bd967489621e898ac9e27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fc3…c9e7backed No | 65c | 23,000$14,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,050 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…dd71backed Yes | 35c | 23,000$8,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,050 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a0…4c03backed No | 13c | 365$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.64per pick | 16cpaid | +378.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…b540backed Yes | 71c | 278.63$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…dfdabacked No | 32c | 249.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 24c | 213$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.32 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf887…6b54backed Yes | 40c | 79.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 40c | 45.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 67c | 43.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0c…1fc6backed Yes | 60c | 39.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…140abacked Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…f5bdbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 29.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Yes | 48c | 21.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 71c | 20.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x863d…2535backed Yes | 62c | 20.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…13b6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 19.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?this page
- Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.7%?No won
- Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be less than or equal to 2.1%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.