Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x182c19441636c8440c617723659b2298c5184becbf0caab7efa38c97d80c681e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof 1win, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Nemesis | 59c | 4,339$2,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.06 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed 1win | 41c | 3,903$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed 1win | 79c | 400$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…698bbacked Team Nemesis | 21c | 400$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed 1win | 29c | 390.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…9474backed 1win | 41c | 307.71$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.16 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked Team Nemesis | 71c | 138.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed 1win | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Team Nemesis | 64c | 96.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Team Nemesis | 73c | 92.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Team Nemesis | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Team Nemesis | 75c | 38.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked 1win | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…8124backed 1win | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: 1win vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - 1win Essence Decider Stage1win won
- Dota 2: 1win vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: 1win vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner1win won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.