Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x185773900522bf8374fe2b9054d8a49ed93c1ffca86426ee4a3d7381639818ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 60c | 899.6$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.56 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.05 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 40c | 437.15$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.45 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 364.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 41c | 176.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 39c | 162$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 60c | 158$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 38c | 152.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 61c | 141.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 128.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 126.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 124.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 66c | 121$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 103.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 29c | 97.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…a60abacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 52c | 94.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 58c | 86.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 46c | 82.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51e…1236backed Yes | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 61c | 65.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 65.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 40c | 60.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 60c | 59.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 63c | 57.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 72c | 55.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 58c | 50.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 54c | 50.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 44c | 47.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 45.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 29c | 44.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 32c | 41.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 38c | 34.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 28.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 67c | 28.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 40c | 27.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 53c | 26.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 75c | 26.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 68c | 25.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 58c | 24.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 55c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 64c | 22.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2391…8ba9backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…eb81backed Yes | 61c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…af84backed Yes | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 75c | 15.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.