Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x185d13f2c24a20e51889a51c8193e242a365784befcec6167012aec0f63a8921
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 51c | 548.12$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.18 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 290.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 270.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.97 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 236.66$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f6…7bd7backed Yes | 73c | 231.14$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 24c | 209.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.52 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.66 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 58c | 198.72$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 50c | 140.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9743…d3a4backed No | 46c | 111.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668a…da78backed No | 66c | 110.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 41c | 102.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 96.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 11c | 89.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 65c | 89.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 55c | 75.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 21c | 72.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 69c | 71.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 37c | 68.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 61c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 77c | 64.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 30c | 57.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 53c | 57.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…8c8bbacked Yes | 59c | 56.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 68c | 52.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 75c | 52.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 65c | 52.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 51c | 49.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 35c | 38.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 66c | 37.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 61c | 34.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 38c | 31.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 68c | 29.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 74c | 27.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 69c | 26.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63e…db54backed Yes | 78c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…02a9backed Yes | 79c | 25.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 58c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 74c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…db04backed Yes | 58c | 18.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.