TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" score at least 35 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,866
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,866 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b3d…8db7backed No28c639$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.427839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes69c596.77$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.041030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-57.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed No10c355.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.350%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x716a…e885backed No27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+326.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No23c291$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.934663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes71c250$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722045%9 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+35.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes72c241$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.883630.6%11 W · 25 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-44%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked No24c211.92$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.214637%17 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x065d…a672backed No27c187.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No22c85.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.724037.5%15 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12f5…5ac4backed No22c45.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-77.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes76c41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.843040%12 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.42365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+26.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xecd9…5565backed Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.34per pick61cpaid-57.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed Yes72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick60cpaid-46.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Yes80c12.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.543228.1%9 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd071…30b6backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.