TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" score at least 45 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,517
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,388

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,517 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5fa2…41acbacked Yes46c1,176$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6944…7275backed No59c450$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.371844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…f0fbbacked No53c431$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.83742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes43c229.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.097839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No56c203.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.833040%12 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Yes63c181.35$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.973228.1%9 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b81…b9fbbacked No47c170.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes41c155.94$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9247328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes42c151.94$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.614721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-50.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No56c151.22$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.984663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad7f…c31fbacked Yes47c141.2$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.22450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Yes43c135.08$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.993658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+40.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes46c133.97$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.352045%9 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+35.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No50c121$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.917445.9%34 W · 40 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No9c112$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked No55c102.58$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.924637%17 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Yes47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+26.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed No55c61$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.553630.6%11 W · 25 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-44%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.53046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed No39c49.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4750%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b9c…aa50backed Yes56c43.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.85475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3008…3c76backed Yes57c37.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes43c34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.382951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes49c24.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.596947.8%33 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa76b…8a50backed No57c24.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.67933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No54c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.34319.7%3 W · 28 L-7.5wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-84.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1491…fd70backed No57c20.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.562133.3%7 W · 14 L-5.0wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-50%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed Yes52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-59%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9629…ee15backed Yes52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8340…b29bbacked No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-53.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecd9…5565backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.34per pick61cpaid-57.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick60cpaid-46.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.