MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18843e6119300f6397d95994c4923c5528fe288dee73ff762e61448d00418207
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 7,890$4,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,322.4 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 42c | 7,788$3,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,299.25 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 1,535$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.87 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 7c | 1,180$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 63c | 906.22$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.3 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa444…7c8bbacked Over | 2c | 646.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 58c | 558.59$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.61 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 48c | 425.78$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.46 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 32c | 102.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 37c | 101.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…7143backed Under | 58c | 99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 53c | 93.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…bf5cbacked Under | 63c | 83.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 58c | 56.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 64c | 51.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Over | 63c | 43.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 42c | 38.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…8732backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -84%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.