Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18b6e288b62492730b6ddb47a86ef0003b360dcabfc70d0830869c2cc5944dd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 41c | 274.85$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.96 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 266.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 264.51$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 54c | 239.78$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.44 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 45c | 233.25$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.23 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 47c | 201.87$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 180.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 38c | 168.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 167.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 122.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 43c | 104.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 79c | 79.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 77.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 71.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 56.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 56.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 62c | 49.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…2002backed Yes | 48c | 46.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 50c | 42.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 62c | 38.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 55c | 35.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 55c | 35.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 55c | 34.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521f…80cdbacked Yes | 65c | 33.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 70c | 32.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 65c | 30.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 29.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 29.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 70c | 28.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 53c | 28.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 42c | 28.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 49c | 26.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…b7cabacked Yes | 79c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 48c | 24.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…3bdbbacked Yes | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 62c | 19.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…59f2backed Yes | 78c | 16.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 73cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.