Tennis · resolved market
Open de Moselle: Arthur Cazaux vs Adrian Mannarino
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18c6ee2fe9de35857337c9b268ee34c69aa1441208305bdd3a90a585474fdc26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cazauxof Cazaux, Mannarino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Mannarino | 22c | 12,000$2,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.37 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cazaux | 79c | 4,232$3,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.43 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Mannarino | 37c | 3,201$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.26 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Mannarino | 37c | 3,065$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.4 | 168 | 25%42 W · 126 L | -14.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Cazaux | 63c | 2,269$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.47 | 270 | 63.7%172 W · 98 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Mannarino | 20c | 1,599$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.77 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…04afbacked Cazaux | 64c | 1,450$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Cazaux | 63c | 1,350$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.5 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…4421backed Cazaux | 79c | 1,125$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…7a5abacked Mannarino | 36c | 1,096$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Cazaux | 76c | 1,013$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.43 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0981…fc82backed Mannarino | 36c | 978$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…36f4backed Cazaux | 64c | 956$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Mannarino | 36c | 708.95$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.67 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Cazaux | 63c | 700$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Cazaux | 67c | 561.05$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.89 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…6c30backed Mannarino | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0d…da12backed Mannarino | 36c | 536$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x947f…fb99backed Mannarino | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cazaux | 63c | 402.85$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.05 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffaa…7fd4backed Mannarino | 25c | 397.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9494…308abacked Mannarino | 25c | 396.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…f7a4backed Mannarino | 36c | 354$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84eb…cf94backed Cazaux | 64c | 325$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Mannarino | 18c | 294.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Mannarino | 18c | 294.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Cazaux | 63c | 293.65$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Mannarino | 20c | 280.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Cazaux | 75c | 219.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…520fbacked Cazaux | 64c | 211$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Mannarino | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cazaux | 79c | 193.67$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Mannarino | 29c | 156.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Cazaux | 78c | 154.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…4fd6backed Mannarino | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mannarino | 22c | 133.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Mannarino | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Mannarino | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Mannarino | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc88d…1da9backed Cazaux | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Mannarino | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Cazaux | 64c | 77.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed Mannarino | 17c | 72.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Cazaux | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…59fabacked Mannarino | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked Cazaux | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9f…4cc8backed Mannarino | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…c712backed Cazaux | 61c | 62.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Mannarino | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 497 | 49.9%248 W · 249 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Mannarino | 35c | 50.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cazaux | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…2ea7backed Cazaux | 63c | 41.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Mannarino | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Cazaux | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x444f…0d49backed Cazaux | 65c | 35.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…fdf3backed Cazaux | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Cazaux | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Cazaux | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd4…5a43backed Cazaux | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.