Tennis · resolved market
Segovia: Ivan Marrero vs Facundo Mena
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18e7da6fc2dd031488ab9f530781d5723259d5efb551569f6436a627f7b2873d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ivan Marreroof Ivan Marrero, Facundo Mena
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf9d…8d0dbacked Ivan Marrero | 65c | 73,510$47,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,617.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Facundo Mena | 34c | 68,141$23,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,330 | 9,161 | 36.1%3,309 W · 5,852 L | -202.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…c46ebacked Facundo Mena | 3c | 3,852$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 282 | 21.6%61 W · 221 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Facundo Mena | 22c | 2,458$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.31 | 8,834 | 42.5%3,758 W · 5,076 L | -169.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Facundo Mena | 61c | 1,012$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.97 | 3,359 | 48.5%1,630 W · 1,729 L | -49.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Ivan Marrero | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Facundo Mena | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 707 | 30%212 W · 495 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Facundo Mena | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 889 | 35.2%313 W · 576 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…8de4backed Facundo Mena | 30c | 450$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Facundo Mena | 6c | 387.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 2,899 | 39.6%1,147 W · 1,752 L | -84.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…b16dbacked Ivan Marrero | 53c | 380.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.42 | 291 | 54.3%158 W · 133 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba7…dd5abacked Facundo Mena | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 175 | 54.3%95 W · 80 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…ff48backed Facundo Mena | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Facundo Mena | 35c | 134.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 1,257 | 52%654 W · 603 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…3e8cbacked Ivan Marrero | 56c | 128.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 303 | 46.5%141 W · 162 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…fd61backed Facundo Mena | 51c | 115$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Ivan Marrero | 42c | 107.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…4052backed Facundo Mena | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Facundo Mena | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 132 | 40.9%54 W · 78 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Facundo Mena | 38c | 99.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 3,885 | 55%2,137 W · 1,748 L | +111.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Facundo Mena | 48c | 92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Facundo Mena | 51c | 84.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Ivan Marrero | 63c | 82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 4,784 | 49.6%2,372 W · 2,412 L | +177.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Ivan Marrero | 59c | 80.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Facundo Mena | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,472 | 45%662 W · 810 L | +42.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Facundo Mena | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 188 | 48.4%91 W · 97 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Facundo Mena | 58c | 64.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 4,041 | 45.7%1,848 W · 2,193 L | -28.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Facundo Mena | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 6,867 | 48.9%3,357 W · 3,510 L | +61.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9e…0dfcbacked Ivan Marrero | 52c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 39cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Facundo Mena | 59c | 53.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 4,376 | 52.3%2,290 W · 2,086 L | +67.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…b70dbacked Ivan Marrero | 42c | 47.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Ivan Marrero | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 2,090 | 52.2%1,091 W · 999 L | +17.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Ivan Marrero | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,179 | 52.8%623 W · 556 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Ivan Marrero | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 1,730 | 52.2%903 W · 827 L | -8.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Ivan Marrero | 50c | 36.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 6,678 | 50.7%3,387 W · 3,291 L | +265.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Facundo Mena | 49c | 31.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 6,550 | 54.4%3,565 W · 2,985 L | +287.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Facundo Mena | 47c | 29.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,892 | 57.5%1,087 W · 805 L | +105.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Facundo Mena | 42c | 26.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 127 | 67.7%86 W · 41 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Ivan Marrero | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 502 | 68.3%343 W · 159 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.