College Football · resolved market
Will Tennessee beat NC State?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18ee1b14ca8668f0fdc947499f7ebbfa6f9bb9bad10e2ec4b0b3955d62f6d935
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tennesseeof Tennessee, NC State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed NC State | 20c | 1,903$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.99 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Tennessee | 77c | 1,248$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.92 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…4236backed NC State | 12c | 500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2ec0backed NC State | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked NC State | 24c | 440.63$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed NC State | 26c | 338.46$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked NC State | 24c | 284.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed Tennessee | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Tennessee | 74c | 196.15$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbd…3c7abacked Tennessee | 77c | 188.15$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…e54bbacked NC State | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…cddfbacked Tennessee | 76c | 122.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Tennessee | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…53a1backed Tennessee | 78c | 98.6$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…d15ebacked NC State | 26c | 95.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…db6abacked NC State | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c01…bb25backed NC State | 19c | 53.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed NC State | 22c | 45.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…c4d0backed Tennessee | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +41%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…a883backed Tennessee | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5642…60c8backed Tennessee | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…1181backed Tennessee | 77c | 21.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Tennessee | 73c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tennessee beat NC State?this page
- Will Tennessee win by 10 or more points?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.