Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Juncheng Shang
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18f2c6d60198427ddc18d8780f0fd1f588444a1378e43dea80e7569e1d3645a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shangof Khachanov, Shang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b9b…211dbacked Shang | 38c | 4,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.98 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Shang | 42c | 2,143$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.87 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Shang | 36c | 1,980$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.36 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Khachanov | 62c | 1,809$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.6 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…675fbacked Khachanov | 62c | 1,280$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Shang | 37c | 1,252$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Khachanov | 62c | 1,012$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.44 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Shang | 45c | 1,000$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.33 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Khachanov | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Shang | 66c | 941$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.16 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Khachanov | 45c | 900$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Shang | 64c | 814.04$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Khachanov | 64c | 784.24$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Khachanov | 64c | 729$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.56 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Shang | 26c | 700$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Khachanov | 64c | 531.25$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Shang | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Khachanov | 62c | 473.46$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.55 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Khachanov | 47c | 422.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…8125backed Khachanov | 63c | 419.55$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.49 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…d3fdbacked Khachanov | 64c | 390.61$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Khachanov | 45c | 302.17$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Shang | 49c | 291.92$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.31 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Khachanov | 48c | 258$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Khachanov | 55c | 242$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.18 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Khachanov | 48c | 209$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…b3a4backed Khachanov | 36c | 166.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7477…ff6ebacked Khachanov | 63c | 157.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Khachanov | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…0684backed Khachanov | 67c | 148.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Khachanov | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Shang | 73c | 105.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Khachanov | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Shang | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…a920backed Khachanov | 65c | 85.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Khachanov | 36c | 77.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Shang | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Shang | 34c | 57.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Khachanov | 38c | 50.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Shang | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Khachanov | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Khachanov | 47c | 32.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Khachanov | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…7ecebacked Khachanov | 67c | 29.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8213…8c05backed Khachanov | 62c | 23.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Shang | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.