Token Launches · resolved market
Will SMARTESTMONEY.HL win the PvP trading competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19094f450b768f072404059ba4d8bc9e8059aea4584fa5092244c3cf6a978d02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29a6…ca58backed Yes | 9c | 613.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +275.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbf…a4bbbacked Yes | 14c | 535.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d5…149bbacked No | 70c | 499.59$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…9274backed Yes | 38c | 250.77$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 184.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d3…f341backed Yes | 30c | 134.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 27c | 115.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…ffedbacked Yes | 58c | 85.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5097…d738backed Yes | 12c | 85.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 56c | 52.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb1…7957backed Yes | 44c | 46.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…7365backed Yes | 47c | 45.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0459…69e1backed Yes | 47c | 38.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a98…5308backed Yes | 47c | 38.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca0a…f840backed Yes | 47c | 38.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 54c | 25.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SMARTESTMONEY.HL win the PvP trading competition?this page
- Will 0XOMNIA win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will ALEX WICE win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will BASED16Z win the PvP trading competition?Yes won
- Will CITED win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will FEI win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will GUTHIX win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will JEZ win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will ROWDY✨ win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will SHOKU win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will STIG win the PvP trading competition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.