Token Launches · resolved market
Will GUTHIX win the PvP trading competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69c9129010796f7e0760e63a432ba27eea40abf61e3991aac86b64ecd7126730
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c1…cefebacked Yes | 25c | 421.5$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 404.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe659…4f92backed Yes | 10c | 332.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d5…149bbacked Yes | 24c | 235.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 30c | 203.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 9c | 194.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…045fbacked Yes | 12c | 138.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbf…a4bbbacked No | 72c | 132.88$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…ffedbacked No | 76c | 131.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 19c | 116.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 72.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GUTHIX win the PvP trading competition?this page
- Will 0XOMNIA win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will ALEX WICE win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will BASED16Z win the PvP trading competition?Yes won
- Will CITED win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will FEI win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will JEZ win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will ROWDY✨ win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will SHOKU win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will SMARTESTMONEY.HL win the PvP trading competition?No won
- Will STIG win the PvP trading competition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.