CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: 3DMAX vs. MIBR:
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x191b89aa56a98a3de175e93d0b6f4c338750bf424d8ecbac0e124c8fadc57077
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 3DMAXof 3DMAX, MIBR
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed MIBR | 38c | 3,572$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.95 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed 3DMAX | 61c | 3,000$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MIBR | 19c | 1,585$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.29 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed MIBR | 13c | 800$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked MIBR | 36c | 400.39$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.59 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked 3DMAX | 68c | 385.4$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…3607backed MIBR | 37c | 380.19$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed 3DMAX | 63c | 317.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.67 | 112 | 69.6%78 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…22efbacked 3DMAX | 70c | 246.34$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed MIBR | 34c | 219.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed MIBR | 12c | 216.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked MIBR | 33c | 147.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 249 | 43.8%109 W · 140 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed 3DMAX | 61c | 106.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked MIBR | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed MIBR | 38c | 99.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…1448backed 3DMAX | 63c | 79.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed MIBR | 38c | 71.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed MIBR | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed 3DMAX | 65c | 41.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 225 | 56%126 W · 99 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked 3DMAX | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…6f98backed 3DMAX | 63c | 34.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked 3DMAX | 67c | 26.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…479dbacked 3DMAX | 63c | 21.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd76…9fe3backed 3DMAX | 63c | 18.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…524bbacked 3DMAX | 64c | 18.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…d8bebacked 3DMAX | 75c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.