College Football · resolved market
Spread: Buffalo (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x191e974d05926fa190ff16cca2771f582d18d4014dc7b3a731eecfdd746b779f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UMassof Buffalo, UMass
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Buffalo | 52c | 155,880$80,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80,556.4 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked UMass | 48c | 132,949$64,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,641.45 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed UMass | 47c | 12,215$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,415 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Buffalo | 52c | 10,586$5,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,503.33 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed UMass | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UMass | 48c | 5,573$2,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,921.3 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked UMass | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Buffalo | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed UMass | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked UMass | 48c | 1,111$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.72 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Buffalo | 52c | 1,111$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.72 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked UMass | 48c | 729$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.08 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed UMass | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Buffalo | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…7a07backed Buffalo | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…3d87backed UMass | 50c | 221$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.69 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked UMass | 48c | 132$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked UMass | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Buffalo (-16.5)this page
- Buffalo vs. UMassBuffalo won
- Buffalo vs. UMass: O/U 43.5Over won
- Buffalo vs. UMass: O/U 46.5Over won
- O/U 44.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.