Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19287e98bbf9456686ef6d47e4a50331b4a66649207e83bc3b1b01c92627de7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,465 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 917.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 74c | 860.95$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.41 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 15c | 627.8$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.64 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 41c | 624.76$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.71 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 570.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 532.38$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.21 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 518.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 4c | 432.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.28 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked No | 69c | 400$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.17 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 15c | 350$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 3c | 340.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.33 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 49c | 290.37$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 31c | 273$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.37 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 36c | 256.03$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 246.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 66c | 245.51$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.16 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 13c | 239.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.79 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 25c | 216.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 9c | 203.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.43 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 71c | 202.54$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 17c | 175$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 38c | 144.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 20c | 136.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.54 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.67 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 10c | 106.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.15 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 34c | 102.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…d440backed Yes | 25c | 100.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 68c | 81.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 70.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 20c | 69.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3f…ae75backed No | 77c | 63.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 80c | 62.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 58.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 58c | 58.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 50c | 54.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 67c | 53.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…c3f1backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +78%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 25c | 43.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 78c | 38.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 79c | 30.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c84…88f3backed Yes | 70c | 29.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…a7a4backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 58c | 23.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 62c | 22.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 19.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 72c | 16.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.