Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7910ee597b657c3ca15f1cd12bc59f73e0c6960802145ef5c8617ebbfdcac2b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,299 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 50c | 1,055$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 1,024$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 53c | 730.51$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.99 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Yes | 54c | 597.92$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Yes | 54c | 433.86$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.09 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 430.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 4c | 430$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 378.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…b3cfbacked Yes | 14c | 363.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 35c | 299.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 10c | 294.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a24…2605backed Yes | 52c | 286.45$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 47c | 276.95$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.08 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 13c | 273.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 269.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…db34backed Yes | 4c | 268.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 41c | 264.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 251.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 16c | 249.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 36c | 244.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.14 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 22c | 216.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 49c | 215.6$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.27 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 205.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 8c | 201$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 199.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 7c | 196.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 193.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb65…cf36backed Yes | 20c | 190.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 168.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 47c | 159.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 30c | 151.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 64c | 151$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 51c | 148.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 23c | 139.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f8…e102backed Yes | 36c | 139$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…69e7backed Yes | 31c | 139$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 35c | 131.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 44c | 124.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 120.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 108.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 37c | 105.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 52c | 104.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 57c | 100.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 16c | 95.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 47c | 94.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…bbdcbacked Yes | 31c | 92.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b6…ec8cbacked Yes | 16c | 83.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 36c | 83.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 41c | 79.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 40c | 76.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…5512backed No | 69c | 68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 65.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 63c | 64.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 39c | 63.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 45c | 55.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…7a9dbacked Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00b…b8a1backed No | 64c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 41c | 48.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 23c | 47.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 32c | 47.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 43c | 46.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 41c | 46.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 49c | 40.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 50c | 39.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…9e72backed Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 53c | 37.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 37.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 49c | 34.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 60c | 34.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 80c | 33.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a9…ddafbacked No | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a3…c965backed No | 47c | 31.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 64c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 75c | 31.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 30.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 69c | 28.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71a0…3473backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 42c | 27.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0f…4ceabacked No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 59c | 25.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 58c | 24.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc1…7c52backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…036ebacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.