Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1992d73bc6593761e32e716b1158a208c80901eb70420fcddf0a8d6d6298d4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x270a…6519backed Yes | 35c | 2,826$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…f26abacked No | 65c | 1,420$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa176…0557backed No | 65c | 1,406$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 799.97$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.99 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 750.97$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 700$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 3c | 499.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 406.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 33c | 331.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 59c | 294.35$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.08 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 251.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 29c | 245.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 38c | 244.7$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.14 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 61c | 216.7$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.69 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 37c | 215.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 26c | 212.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 76c | 205.25$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 26c | 200.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 47c | 189.11$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 58c | 178.57$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa681…4298backed Yes | 49c | 154$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 149.59$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 22c | 135.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 125.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 120.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 9c | 116.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 51c | 101.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 44c | 100.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 92.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 21c | 80.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked Yes | 25c | 78.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 18c | 74.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…bfa8backed No | 51c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked No | 45c | 67.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 59c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 38c | 57.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 62c | 56.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 36c | 55.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 53.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…d691backed Yes | 28c | 53.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 21c | 48.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 25c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 37c | 44.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 39c | 37.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf942…e4eebacked No | 37c | 36.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 60c | 33.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…d440backed Yes | 46c | 32.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 42c | 32.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…7a52backed No | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…674ebacked Yes | 60c | 29.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 77c | 29.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 29.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 41c | 29.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 54c | 28.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 79c | 27.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…293cbacked Yes | 62c | 26.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…ee48backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…9059backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2f…9b75backed No | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 73c | 25.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…a7a4backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 80c | 24.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 23.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…b3cfbacked No | 44c | 23.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe18b…9996backed Yes | 51c | 22.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 21.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31f1…35eebacked Yes | 57c | 21.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 20.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2044…6904backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…00d8backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…5d51backed No | 75c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed68…d3bfbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.