MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x193d4ee7a30fd0899a9ee78bc5d17027d7a47973df85d03660bfae3281f2ca87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 0c | 6,458$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 2,984$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,882.41 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Houston Astros | 38c | 2,388$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.91 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 941.73$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.25 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros | 63c | 510.87$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.88 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 390$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 333.47$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.56 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Houston Astros | 45c | 266.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Houston Astros | 69c | 221.39$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Houston Astros | 36c | 210.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Houston Astros | 36c | 196$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Houston Astros | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 139$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed Houston Astros | 37c | 135.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 117.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Baltimore Orioles | 10c | 103.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Houston Astros | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Houston Astros | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 92.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 91.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…d339backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 69.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Houston Astros | 34c | 61.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Houston Astros | 42c | 56.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Houston Astros | 31c | 56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf922…48d9backed Houston Astros | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Houston Astros | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Houston Astros | 39c | 37.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 35.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…8fe0backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Houston Astros | 44c | 28.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Houston Astros | 40c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…b42dbacked Houston Astros | 69c | 23.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.