Mls · resolved market
D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1951b6ffa4967aaba71544fab56df63cc48ade9b66580fce8046dc4a90d0fda8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 16c | 1,310$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.47 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 17c | 899.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.99 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 17c | 564.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.29 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Over | 78c | 359.28$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 46c | 353.32$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.87 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 73c | 345.4$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.22 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 11c | 299.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.4 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 25c | 224.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.76 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 14c | 215.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.69 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 79c | 105.94$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 33c | 75.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 33c | 71.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 29c | 66.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 71c | 64.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 64c | 57.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 32c | 54.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked Over | 40c | 25.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5this page
- D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.