Mls · resolved market
D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x941be725c5f0d7535f9d9834c4fdb4104a45c7c6e1b53cd35f64518e030e26ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 32c | 10,611$3,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,201.91 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 2,170$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.78 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 1c | 1,857$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 70c | 1,576$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 68c | 1,470$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 32c | 1,200$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.44 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 68c | 1,200$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 67c | 1,021$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.15 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…cb68backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 68c | 763.72$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.33 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 68c | 700$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 52c | 644.09$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.93 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 31c | 627.72$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 68c | 600$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 68c | 551.38$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.94 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 66c | 494.85$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.45 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 67c | 490.87$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.88 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 57c | 312.96$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.7 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 31c | 309.23$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.37 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Over | 33c | 290.85$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.87 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 68c | 252.79$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.06 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 68c | 226.77$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.2 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 68c | 219.41$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.13 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 68c | 180$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 68c | 160$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 68c | 160$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 68c | 160$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 69c | 157.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 62c | 146.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 34c | 134.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.06 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc4…5a94backed Under | 70c | 127.66$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 69c | 122.65$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 35c | 119.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 48c | 113.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 69c | 105.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 38c | 100.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 86.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Over | 41c | 82.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 28c | 77.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 48c | 73.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 46c | 65.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 33c | 58.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 68c | 54.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 61c | 52.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x876d…1327backed Under | 69c | 41.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 71c | 41.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 53c | 33.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 69c | 31.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 69c | 21.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 69c | 19.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…b692backed Under | 69c | 17.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 78c | 13.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5this page
- D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.