CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs BESTIA (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1953a0acef43c78da6a0bc1b204c3b1c9e4014f2c0c658a53cd417be6fa05318
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BESTIAof Fluxo, BESTIA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed BESTIA | 75c | 544.74$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.18 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Fluxo | 46c | 446.95$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 5,876 | 37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L | +71.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked BESTIA | 54c | 415.04$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.92 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Fluxo | 29c | 308.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.22 | 1,087 | 31.9%347 W · 740 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Fluxo | 41c | 240$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…8b07backed BESTIA | 68c | 232.22$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 498 | 66.9%333 W · 165 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Fluxo | 51c | 194.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 485 | 62.7%304 W · 181 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked BESTIA | 59c | 190.07$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked BESTIA | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 921 | 45.8%422 W · 499 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Fluxo | 40c | 159.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 2,672 | 47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed8…7559backed Fluxo | 41c | 146.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff09…80b5backed Fluxo | 24c | 140.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…0c20backed BESTIA | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 261 | 55.2%144 W · 117 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Fluxo | 32c | 129.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 2,605 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L | +97.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed BESTIA | 59c | 127.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 2,645 | 51.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L | +21.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d5…9727backed Fluxo | 42c | 115.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 174 | 38.5%67 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…3b9bbacked BESTIA | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed Fluxo | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,087 | 37.5%408 W · 679 L | +33.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked Fluxo | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Fluxo | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…d97cbacked BESTIA | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 594 | 45.8%272 W · 322 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Fluxo | 40c | 84.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked BESTIA | 60c | 72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 336 | 50%168 W · 168 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Fluxo | 22c | 71.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Fluxo | 39c | 67.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 338 | 44.4%150 W · 188 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked BESTIA | 61c | 58.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 336 | 57.1%192 W · 144 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked BESTIA | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ba…2404backed BESTIA | 79c | 50.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 218 | 56%122 W · 96 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…ab76backed BESTIA | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 347 | 50.1%174 W · 173 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…76e5backed BESTIA | 57c | 30.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 408 | 56.9%232 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed BESTIA | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1,895 | 47.8%906 W · 989 L | -50.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed BESTIA | 59c | 19.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 504 | 56.5%285 W · 219 L | +17.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs BESTIA (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs BESTIA - Map 1 WinnerBESTIA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.