Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Murray State Racers vs. Evansville Aces
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19604bcdbac7489894e581cd8cae18e386195fb889fe1fe03914d47d4a953af2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Murray State Racersof Murray State Racers, Evansville Aces
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Evansville Aces | 11c | 7,175$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.23 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Evansville Aces | 22c | 2,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Murray State Racers | 78c | 2,500$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Murray State Racers | 80c | 1,600$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 464 | 46.8%217 W · 247 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Evansville Aces | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Murray State Racers | 79c | 1,390$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.99 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…c0bebacked Evansville Aces | 21c | 1,250$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…fe31backed Evansville Aces | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 4.2%4 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -86%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…f107backed Evansville Aces | 22c | 934.77$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.91 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Murray State Racers | 77c | 622.34$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.67 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Evansville Aces | 24c | 496.05$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.79 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Evansville Aces | 20c | 491.9$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 318 | 37.7%120 W · 198 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Murray State Racers | 79c | 225.24$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed20…84f1backed Evansville Aces | 20c | 199.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Evansville Aces | 17c | 178.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Murray State Racers | 76c | 171.07$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Evansville Aces | 24c | 147.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Evansville Aces | 22c | 134.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Murray State Racers | 78c | 119$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Murray State Racers | 70c | 102$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Evansville Aces | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Murray State Racers | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Murray State Racers | 74c | 76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Murray State Racers | 78c | 45.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Murray State Racers | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Murray State Racers | 74c | 21.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Murray State Racers | 77c | 15.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Murray State Racers | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Murray State Racers | 79c | 12.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Murray State Racers vs. Evansville Acesthis page
- Murray State Racers vs. Evansville Aces: O/U 153.5Under won
- Spread: Murray State Racers (-7.5)Murray State Racers won
- Spread: Murray State Racers (-8.5)Murray State Racers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.