Fifa International · resolved market
Will Denmark vs. Greece end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1963a7d39ab330b84526e254906ff060f8a9d59bc1d6d9a932e04c55f0cb0595
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,800$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 75c | 1,929$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.28 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed Yes | 25c | 1,839$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.68 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 1,507$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.57 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 3c | 1,300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +69%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 73c | 677$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.79 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 75c | 614.39$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.85 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 11c | 610.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…8e7dbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 74c | 366$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.16 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…a857backed No | 74c | 350$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 27c | 279.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 26c | 211.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 25c | 205.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…dfb9backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 72c | 178.57$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe409…4c39backed Yes | 33c | 153.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…b783backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…3c35backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 74c | 96.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…c24ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 25.2%33 W · 98 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 369 | 39.6%146 W · 223 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12a7…1bdcbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Denmark vs. Greece end in a draw?this page
- Will Denmark win on 2025-10-12?Yes won
- Will Greece win on 2025-10-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.