Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Ann Li vs Camila Osorio
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19716d39fb4579cf7a96179a40a6421539fd37154ed4cb1c578d9f5f042716ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liof Li, Osorio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Li | 74c | 15,486$11,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,023.09 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…7298backed Li | 61c | 11,967$7,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,684.21 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Osorio | 36c | 11,385$4,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,121.61 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Osorio | 27c | 7,668$2,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,083.98 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Osorio | 32c | 4,841$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.7 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Li | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.03 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed Osorio | 45c | 1,946$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.58 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Li | 61c | 1,647$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.02 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Osorio | 24c | 1,640$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Osorio | 17c | 1,501$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.76 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Osorio | 39c | 1,488$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.2 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Osorio | 23c | 1,386$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.53 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Osorio | 4c | 1,269$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Osorio | 36c | 988.44$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.35 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Osorio | 39c | 960$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.9 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Osorio | 10c | 599.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 136 | 8.1%11 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Osorio | 39c | 503$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.17 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Osorio | 25c | 480.59$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.43 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Li | 53c | 466.11$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.67 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Li | 73c | 449.85$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Li | 57c | 444$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.92 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Li | 63c | 326.73$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.29 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Osorio | 39c | 257$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Osorio | 20c | 252.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Osorio | 27c | 248$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Osorio | 41c | 245$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Li | 69c | 184.64$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Li | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 161 | 33.5%54 W · 107 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Osorio | 33c | 148.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Osorio | 29c | 142$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17bf…5a53backed Li | 79c | 134.15$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Osorio | 18c | 122.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed Osorio | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Osorio | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Osorio | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3e…cbb1backed Osorio | 19c | 98.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Osorio | 29c | 90.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Li | 60c | 82.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Osorio | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 491 | 42.8%210 W · 281 L | -15.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Li | 59c | 76.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…f39abacked Li | 65c | 69.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 606 | 61.2%371 W · 235 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Li | 66c | 66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Osorio | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Osorio | 40c | 56.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Li | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Osorio | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Li | 71c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Li | 74c | 42.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Li | 79c | 39.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Osorio | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Osorio | 40c | 34.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Li | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8339…caa9backed Li | 60c | 33.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5815…ed96backed Li | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…ee51backed Li | 61c | 32.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Li | 53c | 31.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Osorio | 44c | 30.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e9…aeefbacked Li | 71c | 30.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…73dabacked Li | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…44febacked Osorio | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Li | 67c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Li | 68c | 20.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Li | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4b…f8babacked Li | 73c | 19.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Li | 67c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…9654backed Li | 67c | 17.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Li | 78c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Ann Li vs Camila Osoriothis page
- Li vs. Osorio: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Li vs. Osorio: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Li vs. Osorio: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Li vs OsorioLi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.