NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19b80361a23bdaeaddbe0e59a8c0970decc500f816ce34a8a63df9a5522f8792
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 55c | 7,416$4,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,315.94 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 7,100$3,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,373.04 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 4,290$2,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.3 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90e…0b56backed Over | 52c | 3,554$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.18 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 2,327$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.82 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Over | 53c | 1,011$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.18 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 566.74$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.47 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 45c | 444$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 48c | 412$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.76 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…aa3abacked Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 44c | 240$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 48c | 237.88$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a08…05b5backed Over | 53c | 231.87$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 231.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.28 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Over | 53c | 222$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 194.62$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 53c | 181.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.35 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 44c | 156.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 44c | 97.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 46c | 65.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 46c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Over | 54c | 37.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.