TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Maple Leafs vs. Islanders

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Islandersof Maple Leafs, Islanders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,042,466
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,060,550

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,042,466 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 374 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe74a…40eebacked Islanders49c211,140$103,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107,874.034100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+99.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6b4…a278backed Maple Leafs52c200,745$103,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,824.0510349.5%51 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c3a…8679backed Maple Leafs53c190,378$100,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,000.5830%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Maple Leafs51c121,014$61,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,717.3438748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98f7…b3e4backed Maple Leafs52c102,483$52,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,957.410753.3%57 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Islanders48c100,000$48,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,999.997946.8%37 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Islanders47c91,964$43,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,307.2288151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Maple Leafs74c91,377$67,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,642.821,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Islanders26c62,649$16,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,304.4932744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf90e…0b56backed Maple Leafs51c53,830$27,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,268.3313449.3%66 W · 68 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Islanders49c40,000$19,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,499.9925449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Islanders49c30,000$14,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,3008952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Islanders48c28,840$13,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,996.848549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Islanders48c26,725$12,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,803.812,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Islanders49c25,000$12,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,75048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Islanders48c21,000$10,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,9201,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Islanders48c18,888$9,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,821.7521850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Maple Leafs51c18,274$9,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,319.721,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Maple Leafs52c17,769$9,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,2405261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Islanders48c15,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,80032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed Islanders49c12,189$5,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,256.215152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Maple Leafs51c11,913$6,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,075.4493953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Islanders48c10,175$4,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,256.351,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Islanders49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1001,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Islanders44c7,100$3,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,987.3338738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Islanders48c6,906$3,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,577.6410850.9%55 W · 53 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2d7…da62backed Islanders23c6,838$1,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,292.3918840.4%76 W · 112 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Islanders49c6,556$3,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,343.5661953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Islanders50c6,500$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,25033243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Islanders49c6,000$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0604949%24 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Maple Leafs53c5,662$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00023047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Islanders47c5,157$2,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,733.2111745.3%53 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Islanders47c5,097$2,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,701.357162%44 W · 27 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Islanders23c5,032$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,874.5862951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Islanders23c5,026$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,870.0217057.6%98 W · 72 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Islanders48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60012245.9%56 W · 66 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Maple Leafs51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.9975251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked Islanders55c4,758$2,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.1510565.7%69 W · 36 L+15.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+35.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Islanders30c4,217$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,950.6189636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Maple Leafs53c4,190$2,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,212.32,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Islanders51c4,101$2,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,006.111,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Islanders68c3,988$2,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.392,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Islanders49c3,740$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.831,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4738…df78backed Islanders49c3,230$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,647.35735.1%20 W · 37 L-13.5wins-0.24per pick59cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Islanders49c3,138$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600.3879350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Islanders48c3,120$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.252,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3158…d469backed Maple Leafs51c3,100$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5813060%18 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Islanders48c3,064$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.3622852.6%120 W · 108 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Islanders48c3,011$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.681,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Islanders31c3,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0601,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Islanders48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Islanders48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Islanders49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53036038.6%139 W · 221 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Islanders49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53028652.4%150 W · 136 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Islanders48c2,874$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.2451452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Maple Leafs53c2,840$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004032.5%13 W · 27 L-8.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Islanders49c2,700$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,37711252.7%59 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Islanders49c2,686$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.8613553.3%72 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Islanders49c2,629$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.7920552.2%107 W · 98 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Islanders47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32523751.5%122 W · 115 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Islanders47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32584953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Islanders45c2,437$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.2161748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Islanders48c2,344$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.755853.4%31 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Maple Leafs1c2,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.227450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Islanders49c2,190$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.98536.5%31 W · 54 L-11.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Islanders48c2,095$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.311,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Maple Leafs32c2,072$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.881,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Maple Leafs51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Islanders48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04010938.5%42 W · 67 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Islanders77c1,983$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.1785464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3eb6…2abbbacked Maple Leafs4c1,800$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791076.5%7 W · 100 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Islanders49c1,687$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.321,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Islanders49c1,600$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81660249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Islanders23c1,526$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.0212941.9%54 W · 75 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Islanders49c1,500$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.51,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Islanders49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76538046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Islanders49c1,500$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77097651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Islanders48c1,497$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.633345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Maple Leafs52c1,492$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.5716246.9%76 W · 86 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x538a…0823backed Maple Leafs51c1,429$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.791668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Islanders49c1,327$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.539846.9%46 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad2e…71fabacked Islanders49c1,306$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x710f…eb68backed Maple Leafs51c1,297$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Islanders23c1,240$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.85364.2%34 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Maple Leafs51c1,200$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6127750.6%39 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Islanders47c1,200$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63151044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Islanders49c1,159$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.2260337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Islanders48c1,100$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57139047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Maple Leafs48c1,070$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.0916241.4%67 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Islanders25c1,006$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.789547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8021…0da8backed Islanders49c1,005$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.6580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+58.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Islanders49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51019645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f9…86ecbacked Islanders48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52011253.6%60 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Islanders48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5209353.8%50 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Islanders48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52012648.4%61 W · 65 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Islanders49c910$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.120552.2%107 W · 98 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Maple Leafs54c860.72$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.711,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Maple Leafs37c832.2$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.6243742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Islanders48c811$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.7238844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc760…a21abacked Islanders23c810$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.71361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+44.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.