Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19e15a939c3083bf4f0b6406abd96010f4ab4c3d3c5effecc2f5a459ff8997f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hijikataof Tiafoe, Hijikata
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Hijikata | 45c | 855.64$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.6 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Tiafoe | 57c | 600.7$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.92 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f64…6ddfbacked Tiafoe | 55c | 530.73$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.9 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Hijikata | 44c | 398.09$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.64 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…4088backed Tiafoe | 54c | 253.15$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.64 | 181 | 59.7%108 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Hijikata | 42c | 243.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.13 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tiafoe | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hijikata | 39c | 192.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.53 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Tiafoe | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 509 | 52.1%265 W · 244 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Hijikata | 49c | 60.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…848dbacked Tiafoe | 54c | 42.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Tiafoe | 52c | 22.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5)this page
- Set 1 Winner: Hijikata vs TiafoeTiafoe won
- US Men's Clay Court Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances TiafoeFrances Tiafoe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.