Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a097b6ee8f71c3981ea40038bd72fbe17af36db363e38417eed3dab8d39a52f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 787.47$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.97 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…1e16backed No | 72c | 472.75$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 422.27$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 45c | 386.73$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.61 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 349.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 59c | 338.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 35c | 270.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 40c | 248.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 167.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 157.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 69c | 144.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099d…8468backed Yes | 26c | 138.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 17c | 133.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 132.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 40c | 116.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 41c | 99.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf644…a9afbacked Yes | 19c | 97.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 96.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 30c | 94.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 75c | 91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 70c | 88.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 40c | 87.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 74.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 38c | 72.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 36c | 70.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…ea87backed Yes | 28c | 65.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes | 41c | 64.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…9d97backed Yes | 45c | 63.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 24c | 61.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 59.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 38c | 57.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…a265backed Yes | 60c | 57.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 24c | 54.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 62c | 53.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 40c | 50.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked No | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 60c | 47.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 36c | 44.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 79c | 42.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 40c | 41.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 60c | 40.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 32c | 40.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked No | 64c | 38.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 59c | 38.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 54c | 38.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 42c | 37.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 37c | 35.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7293…98e8backed Yes | 40c | 35.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…6797backed Yes | 41c | 34.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 60c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 59c | 29.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 40c | 29.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…9eb8backed No | 62c | 28.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed No | 63c | 27.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…fcacbacked No | 62c | 27.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 42c | 25.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…66f8backed No | 79c | 24.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 58c | 21.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 59c | 19.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked No | 79c | 13.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.