Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bd0463bd7341ee45a4d20e2e8e621758fe6bba69af6cd0bdb82757e939818fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 386.19$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 69c | 336.65$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 325.28$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 55c | 276.4$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.93 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 67c | 189.73$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 68c | 179.78$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.37 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 63c | 178.2$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 25c | 169.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 167.79$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 166.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 32c | 140.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 26c | 138.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x121f…4765backed Yes | 35c | 136.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.61 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 69c | 135.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…61d3backed No | 62c | 131.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 127.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 40c | 125.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 18c | 125.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 61c | 122.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 42c | 119.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 75c | 116.69$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf644…a9afbacked No | 25c | 107.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 34c | 99.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 65c | 77.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 77.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 75.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 26c | 69.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed Yes | 80c | 67.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 30c | 66.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 39c | 64.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 35c | 61.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 71c | 60.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 64c | 59.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 38c | 59.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 33c | 59.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 58.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 54c | 58.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 77c | 49.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked No | 70c | 48.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 50c | 48.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae8…5697backed No | 58c | 44.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 43.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 67c | 42.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…6b67backed Yes | 77c | 40.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099d…8468backed No | 66c | 40.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 34c | 40.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 32c | 40.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked Yes | 42c | 35.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…dd14backed No | 64c | 34.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked No | 57c | 33.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…ac3ebacked No | 77c | 33.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 38c | 29.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 39c | 29.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 76c | 24.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…fcacbacked No | 73c | 23.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 69c | 20.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 76c | 20.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 62c | 20.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…615abacked No | 70c | 20.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 64c | 19.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 78c | 18.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…d8a6backed No | 75c | 18.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 65c | 17.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 66c | 15.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.