Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a0aeda18e5beeaf9a001ab918049274fb0fe8cdef1891be9f9728e19c74ff30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 1,467$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 649.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…27acbacked Yes | 8c | 626.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…ad9dbacked Yes | 8c | 619.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 27c | 574.45$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.81 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb977…b5e2backed Yes | 29c | 445.46$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.02 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 443.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8743…9591backed Yes | 3c | 405.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…4ff1backed Yes | 20c | 372.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 15c | 371.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…7d42backed Yes | 16c | 349.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 30c | 327.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 20c | 321.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 235.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 80c | 217.56$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 12c | 208.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…eb6ebacked Yes | 17c | 170.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 77c | 168.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd183…fc51backed Yes | 19c | 144.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…428cbacked No | 79c | 111.17$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…750bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe89f…c2c6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b884backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…6747backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…92b6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…6804backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…cb93backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…a1c9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf821…f546backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…0b31backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…36a8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42d1…8769backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…120ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dc…01c9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…ae6ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…eed5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…d952backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…4834backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 27c | 75.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 23c | 71.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 67.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 73c | 43.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 76c | 40.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 67c | 35.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked No | 78c | 29.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…2ddfbacked No | 75c | 27.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…a2ebbacked No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 72c | 19.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.7wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4f…2c34backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…9904backed No | 79c | 14.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.