Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x074bbefae690c20ba56c772adbda29597eeeb36adc21c708b4a1483cadee8298
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dbe…6351backed No | 0c | 54,283$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.18 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…b42ebacked No | 1c | 7,387$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed No | 0c | 2,448$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 1c | 2,015$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 2c | 1,382$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 65c | 1,172$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.5 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 2c | 929.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 14c | 892.43$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.09 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 71c | 617.01$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.35 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 45c | 451.58$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.63 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…bfe7backed No | 70c | 304.88$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.06 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 15c | 301.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.66 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 34c | 244.04$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.19 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…27acbacked No | 55c | 234.47$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.43 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…b8c9backed No | 8c | 234.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 229.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92a…7d0dbacked No | 9c | 220.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 215.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.45 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2bcabacked No | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 195.22$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 20c | 184.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.02 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 7c | 175.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…7d42backed Yes | 48c | 161.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 158.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Yes | 64c | 150.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…1ef4backed Yes | 35c | 149.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked No | 39c | 146.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd183…fc51backed Yes | 38c | 146.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 25c | 135.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…4ff1backed Yes | 47c | 134.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…9748backed No | 73c | 134.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 65c | 133.62$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 39c | 132.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed No | 11c | 110.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 104.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050a…9a4abacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 43c | 99.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Yes | 79c | 97.9$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 61c | 94.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 22c | 86.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 27c | 85.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 68c | 81.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…628ebacked No | 22c | 78.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 52c | 78.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 34c | 77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 34c | 75.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 54c | 74.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 68c | 73.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 28c | 71.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 17c | 71.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 67.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 43c | 65.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 62c | 62.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc528…73e9backed Yes | 46c | 62.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 29c | 58.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 36c | 58.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 38c | 53.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed No | 22c | 51.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 36c | 47.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked Yes | 29c | 46.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 39c | 43.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 35c | 42.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c48…6af3backed Yes | 25c | 41.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 71c | 41.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 79c | 39.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 62c | 38.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 36.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09b…ed51backed No | 61c | 36.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 36c | 33.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…421dbacked Yes | 40c | 31.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…190dbacked Yes | 79c | 29.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 38c | 28.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 41c | 25.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d5…3a4dbacked Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…08f3backed Yes | 63c | 24.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed Yes | 49c | 23.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 56c | 20.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.7wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…d65abacked No | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed No | 63c | 19.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 66c | 17.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 72c | 16.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 71c | 16.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…2ddfbacked No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.