Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07a23c5111a2b80fc773a64c125b951e296bcbf1b85acc6fe1bd00d6230f9676
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4a4…5c99backed Yes | 1c | 4,803$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 895.91$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 16c | 673.39$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb977…b5e2backed Yes | 49c | 653.09$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.81 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…20a4backed No | 76c | 539.93$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 79c | 472.82$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 444.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…7d42backed Yes | 36c | 359.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 349.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 334.2$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked No | 71c | 298.42$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 292.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 44c | 271.65$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.89 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 269.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 9c | 258.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 19c | 254.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 6c | 252.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 20c | 243.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…b8c9backed Yes | 8c | 235.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 234.81$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 16c | 209.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd183…fc51backed Yes | 48c | 208.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 39c | 204.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 63c | 203.85$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 30c | 203$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 57c | 201.66$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.96 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…bfe7backed Yes | 48c | 198.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 44c | 194.04$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 190.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 21c | 186.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 12c | 162.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 157.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78f3…6517backed Yes | 62c | 155.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 45c | 133.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…ca06backed Yes | 30c | 132.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 78c | 125.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 39c | 124.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f54…6c74backed Yes | 20c | 117.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…4ff1backed Yes | 45c | 104.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 15c | 101.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…603bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…e39ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 23c | 97.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 57c | 96.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 95.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 24c | 91.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…74cfbacked No | 58c | 89.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 88.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 58c | 86.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 81.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2c…af6cbacked No | 53c | 81.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 28c | 80.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 28c | 80.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 60c | 76.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 30c | 76.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 42c | 76.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 18c | 73.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 38c | 73.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2493…8c5ebacked Yes | 46c | 61.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 37c | 60.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 55c | 59.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 58.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 38c | 54.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 52.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 46c | 49.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…5eefbacked No | 79c | 48.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 57c | 47.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 42c | 47.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 41c | 47.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc017…9f26backed Yes | 52c | 46.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c5ebacked No | 63c | 45.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 29c | 45.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 56c | 44.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc528…73e9backed Yes | 44c | 43.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…6405backed Yes | 44c | 43.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce4…1d00backed Yes | 33c | 42.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed No | 48c | 36.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 41c | 34.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 42c | 33.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 62c | 32.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…58fbbacked Yes | 44c | 32.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee6d…5e2cbacked No | 50c | 31.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 46c | 30.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb161…9132backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 71c | 27.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 72c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…5a67backed Yes | 53c | 27.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 47c | 26.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 56c | 25.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 42c | 24.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 54c | 23.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.