Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a0d3b108a8699bd4e8b0efebae492ef770ccb31e8524dc2ba980c59ae9e1d63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Midtjyllandof AS Roma, FC Midtjylland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1867…92cabacked FC Midtjylland | 63c | 5,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.89 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked AS Roma | 40c | 1,251$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.45 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed AS Roma | 37c | 1,182$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.61 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AS Roma | 37c | 907.19$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.9 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked FC Midtjylland | 61c | 551.36$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.03 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed AS Roma | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked AS Roma | 37c | 486.49$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed AS Roma | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed FC Midtjylland | 63c | 396.28$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.94 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed AS Roma | 38c | 207.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed AS Roma | 38c | 205.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked FC Midtjylland | 60c | 169.49$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…dc65backed AS Roma | 37c | 137.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked AS Roma | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked AS Roma | 38c | 106.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed FC Midtjylland | 63c | 91.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked AS Roma | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -77%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked AS Roma | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…e227backed AS Roma | 43c | 80.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed AS Roma | 38c | 79.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed AS Roma | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked AS Roma | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 129 | 48.8%63 W · 66 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked FC Midtjylland | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed AS Roma | 40c | 43.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked AS Roma | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2532…5b32backed AS Roma | 39c | 37.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed AS Roma | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -12.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed AS Roma | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed AS Roma | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked FC Midtjylland | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked AS Roma | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed AS Roma | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked AS Roma | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed AS Roma | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed AS Roma | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed AS Roma | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed AS Roma | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed AS Roma | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed AS Roma | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed AS Roma | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed FC Midtjylland | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855b…8dd0backed FC Midtjylland | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed FC Midtjylland | 63c | 23.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)this page
- AS Roma vs. FC Midtjylland: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AS Roma vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.