Asian League · resolved market
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a1e7c276ae7035b2068424f7b095f78b965d69bfcc9b6820e83550440dda748
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 59c | 2,542$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 2,074$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…c0aebacked Over | 50c | 1,256$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 1,250$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 44c | 706.96$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.57 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 333.77$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.3 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 62c | 330$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 52c | 290.76$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 198.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 41c | 165.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 29c | 146.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 62c | 64.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b1…d4d4backed Under | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 60c | 62.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 32c | 60.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7be8…0f50backed Over | 51c | 58.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 43c | 49.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 67c | 29.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 43c | 28.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Under | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Shanghai Haigang FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.