Asian League · resolved market
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15c0870738c5f8a2052c45b61496709a30b52b680941cc2eeb70fe1b5f3ff38b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f59…21cbbacked Over | 50c | 1,464$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…ae58backed Over | 1c | 1,188$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 54c | 624.98$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.69 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 577.38$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.91 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Under | 36c | 556.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.41 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +45.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xff1a…4475backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Under | 50c | 399.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.98 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Under | 50c | 399.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.98 | 207 | 69.6%144 W · 63 L | +31.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Under | 50c | 399.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.98 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +33.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 52c | 361.13$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.34 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 14c | 355.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 354.32$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.52 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 339.9$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.18 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 17c | 314.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.93 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…8be6backed Under | 14c | 277.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 268.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 22c | 219.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 78c | 219.35$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 22c | 173$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +10.9wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked Under | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Under | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 28c | 82.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Under | 17c | 65.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 32c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75a…b549backed Over | 28c | 43.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Under | 35c | 34.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 19.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Shanghai Haigang FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.