Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a4c1f7209688ea9a3207eb321b5903b3ae90e80bb9f269b4aa0a933c28e142d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 14c | 558.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 11c | 281.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 14c | 271.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 13c | 242.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed Yes | 12c | 242.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 12c | 242.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 201.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed Yes | 12c | 193$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 21c | 139$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 13c | 125$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 124.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 13c | 117.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 12c | 115.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 15c | 109.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 12c | 96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 88.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 18c | 84.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 14c | 83.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked No | 80c | 18.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 106°F or higher on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 104-105°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.